As we entered this cycle, two elected Republican officials up for re-election remained at the local, state and federal level in all of Northern Virginia. The tide wasn’t just turning - it had turned.
In the past two elections of Barbara Comstock for Congress and Ed Gillespie for Governor, this district went blue by double digits.
A benchmark poll in September showed us just how much this tide has turned. We had gone from being up five or six points in June to being down two...and our opponent had spent next to nothing. As voters began to pay attention to this election, the sentiment towards Republicans continued to worsen. As much as we tried to avoid it, national issues like impeachment were weighing Pat down.
Every year is an election year in Virginia. In odd numbered years - when most of the country is preparing for the following year’s presidential or midterm elections - we’re gearing up for a governor or state legislative election. Most voters do not pay attention in odd numbered years. Turnout in off year elections like this one has historically hovered around 30%. Typically that benefits Republicans as our base is more devoted (and more elderly) with more likelihood to vote.
However, turnout statewide in Virginia was approximately 13 points higher than normal. And most of those low propensity voters were Democrats that were motivated by national issues.
With a margin of just about 500 votes, we’re proud to be a part of the team that resulted in Pat Herrity being one of two Republican elected officials left in all of Northern Virginia.